Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.  -Sun Tzu

There is a distinct pattern rising in the timing of recent events. Hezbollah and the cartels, threats of closing the Strait of Hormuz, test missle launches, Naval drills, fuel rod announcements, and advanced underground enrichment facilities, super high density concrete, Syria in an uproar, Israel lining up, when taken individually can seem not to be orchestrated. When coupled with each other and the most likely actions of other nation state level actors, complete coincidence seems highly unlikely. Especially if you look at how many of the recent events have been either under Iranian control or were highly publicized and easily predictable.

Part 2: Promote Instability and Information Overload.

Take, for example, the recent statements coming out of Iran from Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, a senior and influential IRGC officer, calling for the Afghans to take up weapons against the US forces. Not too surprising. EVERYONE KNOWS THAT IRAN IS BEHIND THE SCENES. Still, it is the timing of the statement that gives it special interest. Or take the recent bullshit statements concerning the closing of the Strait of Hormuz (SOH), at this point, is just that: bullshit.Everyone knows it’s bullshit. Even they’ve come out and said that it was bullshit, but that is not what matters. What matters is that it grabs headlines and dominates conversations. Don’t underestimate the Iranians to the point where you believe that they have senior IRGC officers that are incapable of controlling their mouths?

The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is a serious threat, and not one that is either said or taken lightly. The Iranian Anti Access / Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities are formidable, well thought out, and entrenched. The regular Iranian Navy has more than 18000 active duty soldiers, and the IRGC Navy (IRGCN) has over 20,000. They have naval bases and air stations lining the coastline, thousands of mines ten times more powerful than the ones they used in the Tanker Wars, and Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCM) scattered up and down the coastline. How long they could keep it closed depends on a variety of factors, but that they could close it is not to be dismissed lightly. Short of directly firing missiles at Israel, it is the most serious current threat they could level.

Those were not just random threats. They were timed to coincide with the naval exercises that were already planned in the SOH. They wanted to display certain things, and those timed statements ensured that they would be center stage. From an Information Operations standpoint, it is a textbook example of how to use the information space to manipulate your adversary.

Tehran has had considerable time to consider how other nations will react to their nuclear pursuits as they get closer and closer. The moment they successfully test detonate a nuclear weapon, the game changes considerably. They know they can’t hide it, and they wouldn’t want to even if they could. I think it would be safe to assume that to those behind the Iranian nuclear program, it is a moment that they dream about every day. After that, any nation considering launching any kind of military strike against Iran would have to factor in a nuclear response. Any nation already involved in a conflict with Iran would need to instantly recalculate their strategy and willingness to continue the conflict.

Iran is also not stupid. They do not want to make the same mistake that Iraq made when they invaded Kuwait. Saddam was closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon before that invasion than he ever got again. By invading Kuwait he gave the U.S. the excuse they needed to strike the facilities responsible for research and development of his nuclear program. The Iranians have had a long time to plan for the repercussions of going nuclear. They are trying to create a cold war of sorts long enough to buy them the necessary time to test detonate a nuclear weapon. It actually could be very effective. Israel wants support from other countries, namely NATO and US. I don’t see them having too much luck with the Arab League or the security council. That’s where keeping the Strait of Hormuz threat fresh in the international view. The global effect becomes a deterrent force multiplier.

It’s highly unlikely that the Obama administration would carry out a preemptive tactical strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities of it’s own volition. Not in an election year, right after leaving Iraq. While Iran could not bet their entire nuclear program on that assumption, it certainly lowers the probability. Keeping the US out of the equation is a critical factor for Tehran when they begin to test detonate. Israel will be much more hesitant but WILL EVENTUALLY unilaterally strike Iran, even if they could not count on US support. But even in Israel, the threat of cruise missiles striking cities has a significant deterrent effect. And what Iran needs more than anything else right now is time. They need to deter, or at least delay as long as possible, any conflict with Israel or coalition forces.

Imagine the repercussions of that on the regional power scale. Israel strikes Iran, and gets into a prolonged rocket war. Iran survives long enough to successfully test detonate. Ever heard the term: “Game Changer”?

Israel’s objective would then be unreachable, so they would look to back out. On the regional stage however, Israel will be seen as being beaten and that will be blood in the water.

Worse, imagine that the US was also involved. Inevitably America would also cease operations for the same reasons. America would also be seen as weak and beaten.

How were these two world powers beaten? The logical, reasonable, and without a doubt true, answer to this would undeniably that Iran had acquired a nuclear weapon. A new nuclear arms race would begin in full, and the world will be powerless to stop it.

North Korea believed it. They were right.

Iran believes it. They’re right too.

If you stall long enough, eventually you will succeed.

Stall -> become hostile -> agree to talk -> stall again -> withdraw from talks -> Repeat.

Oh my Lord, they got their tactical playbook from my husband.

In a world run by politicians, where public opinion rules and money talks the loudest, everyone is worried about re-election and covering their ass. The ability to make the hard choice- the right choice – the one that costs you an election or even your career, is something that our nation seems to have lost as of late. Those choices, the ones made by men like Lt. Col. North or Gen McChrystal, are the ones we need our leaders not to be too afraid to make. And we need it soon.

Netanyahu is the type of man who will not be afraid to make that choice if he has to, and he is severely running out of time.

 

Next: Conflict Before Conflict